Real Estate & Investing

George Gonigal asked:


Who would have thought that Asia’s largest slum – Dharavi- would become a prized property in Mumbai? Today, every inch of land in Dharavi is sought after. The civic agencies have called in private property and infrastructure developers to revamp the locality.

Real estate developers are striving to get hold of this redevelopment project since Dharavi’s development plan will free 535 acres of urban land in Mumbai. The Maharashtra government has embarked on a Rs 9,260 crore plan to redevelop Dharavi. Big real estate developers like DLF, Emaar MGF and Akruti Nirman have expressed their interest in rebuilding Dharavi. The Maharashtra government claims that many global property builders have also bid for this project but the details have not been disclosed. The government has received expressions of interest from 26 consortia – with three partners each. Of the 78 companies that have shown interest, 25 are international ones; only one consortium is completely Indian.

Meanwhile, the scramble for a piece of Dharavi has begun. The property prices in Dharavi have almost doubled, fetching around Rs 6,000 – 10,000 per sq The slum occupies around 535 acres of land bank in the heart of space-strapped Mumbai, between the city’s swank Bandra Kurla Complex on the one side, and residential neighbourhood Sion on the other.

Inspired by this sudden surge in property values, the real estate developers are now keen to consider the redevelopment of other slums in Mumbai.

Property developers have started looking at the northeastern pockets of the city. These areas have a lot of land available, and are well connected with road network. Moreover in a city where residential property rental values are among the highest in the world, re-development provides an affordable option for property developers and home seekers. Hence, it is a win-win situation for all.

For more details on Mumbai Properties, log on to magicbricks.com

The Global Property Guide asked:


The winners: Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines

Singapore experienced Asia’s highest residential property price increases during 2006, with 9.5% real (inflation-adjusted) house price rises.

There were also 9.3% real house price increases in South Korea, and 9.1% real house price increases in the Philippines. These were seen in the Global Property Guide House Price Indices, the biggest collection of residential property price indices.

Singapore’s strong 2006 GDP growth rate, at 7.9%, pushed up demand for Singapore property. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential property price index rose by 10% (9.5% in real terms) in 2006.

South Korea also saw a strong rebound in property prices, despite continued efforts by the government to depress the market. The Kookmin Bank’s house price index rose 11.6% in Dec. 2006 (9.3% in real terms) from a year earlier.

In the Philippines, strong economic growth and reduced inflation contributed to the continued recovery of the real estate sector. In addition, demand from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and dual citizens has been strong, pushing prices up. Luxury condominium prices in the Philippines rose 15% (9% in real terms) in 2006, following an 11% nominal price rise in 2005, according to Colliers International.

Japan and Hong Kong are laggards

Japan’s residential property market continued to fall in 2006, despite repeated attempts by the media to portray the market as rallying. Nevertheless, the residential urban land price index registered a smaller fall in 2006 (-2.8%) compared to last year (-4.7%).

Hong Kong’s property market turned negative (-2.13%) in 2006, after impressive gains in 2004 (27%) and 2005 (8%). Higher interest rates in the US, mirrored directly in Hong Kong, were a major cause of the downturn.

Taiwan’s messy political crisis seems to have frozen residential prices, with 0% appreciation during 2006. In real terms, Taiwan experienced a decline in house prices during 2006 (-1.7%). During three years prior to the second quarter of 2006, Taiwan’s Sinyi house price index rose 17%.

In Malaysia, house prices did not to keep pace with inflation. Malaysian house prices today are at the same level as 1995, in real terms.

Thailand saw the end of ending its strong post-Asian crisis property market recovery, as the political crisis impacted the economy. House prices moved up just 1.9% in 2006 (-2.4% in real terms), after 2005’s price increase of 7% (1.5% in real terms), and 2004’s rise of 9% (6% in real terms).

Indonesia managed to reduce 4Q 2006 inflation to 6% from 16% during the first three quarters. With the house price index registering a 6.6% increase in 2006; house prices rose by 0.5% in real terms.

The 2007 elections – risks abound

2007 is an election year in Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and political uncertainty is likely to increase. There will also be elections in Japan and Hong Kong, but they are unlikely to have much impact on the real estate market. In Thailand, uncertainty will increase if elections are not called.

The Philippines. A victory for President Arroyo’s party in the upcoming Congressional elections would be positive for real estate. Election years in the Philippines bring money inflows, but also increased uncertainty. But if Arroyo wins enough seats in Congress she will push constitutional change, removing constitutional limits on foreign ownership of real estate and companies – good for real estate.

South Korea. The economic interventionism of left-of-center President Roh Moo-hyun has been damaging for Korea’s housing market. His support is crumbling, and a less interventionist president may be elected in December. But even if the opposition Grand National Party wins, excessive government intervention in the housing market has a very long history in South Korea.

Taiwan. Parliamentary elections at end-2007 will provide a strong lead on whether the Kuomintang (KMT) can regain control of the presidency in 2008 from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). President Chen Shui-bian’s two terms have largely been spent on keeping him from being ousted. Significant banking and tax reforms have been held hostage by politics.

Japan. Half of the seats in the upper house will be contested in July. Seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may be reduced, risking its reform agenda. These seats were won with the help of former prime minister and popular reformist Junichiro Koizumi.

Hong Kong. Donald Tsang is up for re-election as chief executive where elections are still largely ceremonial and Beijing’s anointment is the only significant factor. Pro-democracy campaigners are hoping and pushing for reforms to full democracy and Mr. Tsang’s failure to push for constitutional reforms in 2005 means that this will be his last term.

Thailand. The sooner elections are called, and Thailand is returned to democracy, the better it will be for the property market and the economy as a whole. The fate of Thailand’s property market hinges on the junta. If the junta prolongs military rule, the market will suffer.

The Global Property Guide sees inflation risks to be minimal in Asia in 2006. But other risks threaten the real estate market, particularly the re-emergence of bird flu in several countries, Indonesia in particular.

The Global Property Guide asked:


It has been a dismal year for house prices, according to the Global Property Guide’s latest survey of publicly-available house-price time-series for the year 2008. And seen from a global perspective, the downturn is still accelerating.

The collapse of the world’s housing markets can be seen from three points of view, and unfortunately, all of them reinforce the bad news.

During 2008, the downward price momentum accelerated, as compared to 2007.

Only 2 countries saw positive momentum in 2008 (a slower downward house price movement than last year, or faster upward movement), while 28 countries saw their housing market momentum deteriorating, compared to the previous year. The two countries with a positive momentum were Germany and Switzerland.



During 2008, house prices fell in most countries.

During 2008 only 8 out of 32 countries saw house prices rise, after adjustment for inflation, while 20 countries experienced house price falls.

In contrast, during the year 2007, the downturn was just beginning, and only 6 countries saw house prices fall, while 24 countries saw house prices rise (all figures inflation-adjusted).

Many house-price falls during 2008 were extremely severe. Countries with house price falls of over 10% during 2008 were Latvia (Riga) (37%), Lithuania (Vilnius) (27%), the US (20%), the UK (18%), Iceland (16%), Ireland (12%), and the Ukraine (Kiev) (12%) (all figures inflation-adjusted).

During the final quarter (Q4) of 2008, the downward price momentum significantly accelerated, as compared to Q3, suggesting that the situation is deteriorating.

During 2008’s final quarter, 9 countries saw house price falls of 5% or more during just that quarter. Price drops of more than 10% during this single quarter occurred in three countries – in Latvia (Riga), which saw price falls of 15%, in Ukraine (Kiev) (13%), and in Hong Kong (15%). Other countries with Q4 house-price falls of 5% and over, included the UAE (8%), Lithuania (7%), Iceland (7%), Singapore (6%), Bulgaria (5%), and the UK (5%) (all figures inflation-adjusted, except UAE).

These price falls were much greater than during the previous quarter, Q3. During that previous quarter, only two countries experienced house-price falls (inflation-adjusted) of 5% or more, and no countries experienced house-price falls of more than 10%.

REGIONAL SURVEY BY GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE

Europe has major problems

The Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania suffered the hardest price falls both in nominal and real terms. In Riga, Latvia, the average price of standard-type apartments plunged 37% during 2008. Prices have been going down in Latvia since late 2007, after a remarkable increase of about 70% in 2006. The most alarming decline took place in the 4th quarter, when prices declined by 15%, the steepest quarterly drop in real terms in any country. These price falls were triggered by increased interest rates, and by the tightened credit rules which Latvia imposed in 2007.

Average prices of apartments in Vilnius, Lithuania, fell by 27% during 2008. House prices started slowing in mid-2007, and crashed in early 2008.

House prices in the UK plummeted by 18% in 2008. Although mortgage interest rates dropped slightly, to 4.48% in December 2008, the number of loan approvals for house purchases fell 58% in 2008.

There is serious trouble in Iceland (house price fall of 16% during 2008), Ireland (12%), Ukraine (12%), Malta (9%), Portugal (8%), France (8%) Finland (7%), Norway (6%) and in Spain (6%).

North America’s woes

In the US, the centre of the global financial crisis, in 2008 house prices fell 20% according to the Case-Shiller house price index, which emphasizes urban areas. OFHEO and FHFB figures, which are associated with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans and have somewhat lost credibility, suggest a smaller decline of 6% and 3% respectively, during 2008. The US government recently approved a $ 787 billion economic stimulus package, of which $275 billion will be allocated to rescue the ailing housing market.

Canada has been much less affected than the US.

Pacific heads down

Both Australia and New Zealand saw house price declines during 2008, of 7% and 8% respectively.

Asia no longer insulated

Housing markets in Asia have not been insulated. Singapore, Hong Kong and Philippines recorded house price falls during 2008.

Singapore’s private residential prices dropped 9% during 2008, in sharp contrast to the 26% price increase of experienced during 2007. The developed countries’ economic troubles adversely affected Singapore’s exports, and during 2008, output in the manufacturing sector, particularly of electronics, precision engineering and chemicals, shrank by 10.7%. Singapore was officially in recession in Q3 2008.

Hong Kong has been badly hit by the crisis. House prices were down by an average of 6% in 2008. But during the last quarter, Hong Kong experienced a severe decline in prices of 14%.

In Makati, Philippines, prime 3-bedroom condominium prices fell by 2% during 2008, after an 11% price rise during 2007. Nevertheless construction of high-rise residential buildings continues, with residential condominium stock rising by 7% during 2008, according to Colliers Philippines.

Japan recorded modest Tokyo condominium price rises of 1.2% during 2008. On the other hand, land prices in Japan’s six major cities fell by 6% y-o-y to Sep-2008.

In Shanghai, China, house price rises slowed to 5% y-o-y by the end of 2008, after peaking at 30% y-o-y to May 2008. However Shanghai is likely to be somewhat exceptional, and Xinhua News Agency reported house prices declines in 70 major cities during 2008. Shenzhen suffered the hardest fall, with prices down by 18% during 2008

UAE on shaky ground

In Dubai, UAE, despite the bleak global picture, saw surprisingly large dwelling price rises of 41% during 2008. However during the year’s final quarter, prices fell by 8% in nominal terms. This downturn is attributable to strongly tightening lending criteria, an increase in interest rates, multiple layoffs, and alarm among buyers.

Forecast: No recovery in 2009

History suggests that in a crash, housing markets take many years from peak year to full recovery. In view of this and of the pessimistic IMF forecast for the global economy, no real recovery is likely in the global housing markets this year.

The IMF has predicted that the world economy will grow by 0.5% in 2009, the lowest level in 60 years. GDP in advanced economies is expected to decline by 2% during 2009. The United Kingdom and Japan will be hit the hardest. Output in the UK may contract by 2.8%, while Japan’s may fall by 2.6%.

Growth in emerging economies is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2009, down from 6.3% in 2008. Developing Asia is forecast to be the least affected, with growth of 5.5%. China’s economy is predicted grow by 6.7% in 2009, but this is a substantial decline from 9% growth during 2008.

We cannot be optimistic for five reasons:

• Valuations still clearly remain stretched in most countries, in terms of price/rent ratios.

• Economic growth is slowing or negative in many countries, which is negative for housing values.

• There are no signs that banks are becoming more willing to lend.

• The unprecedented nature of the financial system’s collapse has greatly added to the difficulties facing the world’s housing markets.

• Some national governments are experiencing difficulty in refinancing their national debt, putting their currencies under pressure. Currency instability is likely to aggravate housing sector problems in countries where many loans were taken out in a foreign currency.

The positive news is that the US government and several others are acting with vigour, as has the IMF. Nevertheless, there is a long tough road ahead.

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Description of the Global Property Guide:

The Global Property Guide (http://www.globalpropertyguide.com) is an on-line property research house, specializing in analyzing residential property valuations around the world.

Terms of Use:

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Requests for Comments:

Requests for comments are best made by telephone to +(63) 917 321 7073. UK-based callers should telephone before lunchtime. Our local time is Hong Kong time, i.e., standard time + 8.00

Economics Team:

Prince Christian Cruz, Senior Economist

Phone: (+632) 750 0560

Email: prince@globalpropertyguide.com

Publisher and Strategist:

Matthew Montagu-Pollock

Phone: (+632) 867 4220

Cell: (+63) 917 321 7073

Email: editor@globalpropertyguide.com

Address:

Global Property Guide

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com

5F Electra House Building

115-117 Esteban Street

Legaspi Village, Makati City

Philippines 1229

info@globalpropertyguide.com

The Global Property Guide asked:


The Global Property Guide today re-launched its web site to make its data more accessible. The home page has been simplified. Major categories have been spelled out. The new Home Page has been organized around an expanded menu, to help the reader navigate the site. Key data items are easier to find, more obvious.

The Global Property Guide

The Global Property Guide is the authoritative source of information on buying residential property. It covers every investible country in the world, from the perspective of income, tax, and capital gains. We provide research and information on 131 countries to residential property investors, with brief information on 85 countries.

Property, as an asset class, is highly susceptible to booms and busts. Across the Western world major countries have experienced a prolonged residential property boom.

Like stock prices (but with markedly different dynamics) residential property prices are now coming back down to earth. We help investors make sense of these swings by providing tools of analysis, and displaying data in a clear, comprehensive and accurate format.

Our fundamental residential property market data includes

• Price change 1 year

• Price change 5 year

• Price change 10 year

• Square metre price city centre

• Total round-trip transaction cost

• Gross yield

• Price to rent (P/R) ratio

• Price to Gross Domestic Product

• Change in interest rates

• Taxes on income (effective rates)

• Capital gains tax (effective)

• Inheritance taxes (effective)

• Buying process (graded by quality)

• Tenant legislation (graded as landlord-friendly)

• Residence (high tax / low tax)

• Economic growth

• Competitiveness

• GDP per capita

• Competitiveness rank, improvement over 5 years

• Stage of economic cycle

“Our aim is to be the Bloomberg of international residential property,” says publisher Matthew Montagu-Pollock, referring to the financial site on trading desks around the world (http://www.bloomberg.com/). “Bloomberg provides data – but also makes it easy to use.”

“It’s important for a residential investor be able to see what his likely return on investment will be. What his taxes will be. To be able quickly to check whether the laws are landlord-friendly. To survey the inheritance laws. All this is now available, for almost every country in the world, on our site, without any marketing material or any attempt to sell you anything – just the facts.”

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Description:

The Global Property Guide is an on-line property research house.

Publisher:

Matthew Montagu-Pollock Phone: (+632) 867 4220 Mobile: (+63) 917 321 7073

Email: editor@globalpropertyguide.com

Address:

Global Property Guide

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com

5F Electra House Building

115-117 Esteban Street

Legaspi Village, Makati City

Philippines 1229

info@globalpropertyguide.com